Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
